2PM Update - Sept 20- Tracking Hurricane Maria

posted by Denis -

Hurricane Maria 2pm

This morning, Hurricane Maria made landfall in Puerto Rico, with 155 MPH winds. As of this afternoon, ALL of Puerto Rico is without power! This is still a very powerful storm.

Most of the European models have forcasted Hurricane Maria to make a sharp turn to the north, posing very little threat to the Carolinas.



BULLETIN

Hurricane Maria Intermediate Advisory Number 18A

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017

200 PM AST Wed Sep 20 2017


...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE FINDS MARIA'S CENTER JUST

OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO...



SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...18.5N 66.9W

ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM W OF ARECIBO PUERTO RICO

ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM E OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES



WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:


None.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:


A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* U.S. Virgin Islands

* British Virgin Islands

* Puerto Rico, Culebra, and Vieques

* Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Puerto Plata

* Turks and Caicos Islands and the Southeastern Bahamas


A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Dominican Republic west of Puerto Plata to the northern border of

the Dominican Republic and Haiti

* Dominican Republic west of Cabo Engano to Punta Palenque


A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

* Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Cabo Engano


A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected

somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life and

property should be rushed to completion.


A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area.


A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible

within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours before

the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,

conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.


Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and the Bahamas should monitor the

progress of Maria.


For storm information specific to your area in the United States,

including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor

products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast

office. For storm information specific to your area outside the

United States, please monitor products issued by your national

meteorological service.



DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Maria was located

by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft just offshore of

the northwestern coast of Puerto Rico near latitude 18.5 North,

longitude 66.9 West.  Maria is moving toward the northwest near 12

mph (19 km/h), and this general motion with a gradual decrease in

forward speed is expected through early Friday. On the forecast

track, the center of Maria will move away from the northwestern

coast of Puerto Rico this afternoon.  The center will then pass

offshore of the northeastern coast of the Dominican Republic tonight

and Thursday and then move near the Turks and Caicos Islands and

southeastern Bahamas Thursday night and Friday.


Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher

gusts.  Maria is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson

Hurricane Wind Scale.  Little change in strength is forecast during

the next 48 hours, and Maria is expected to remain a dangerous major

hurricane through Friday.


Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from

the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150

miles (240 km).  A sustained wind of 45 mph (72 km/h) with a gust

to 77 mph (124 km/h) was recently reported at Mayaguez, Puerto

Rico.  A sustained wind of 46 mph (74 km/h) with a gust to 76 mph

(122 km/h) was recently reported at Cabo Rojo, Puerto Rico.


The minimum central pressure based on the aircraft data is 961 mb

(28.38 inches).



HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are occurring over portions of Puerto

Rico, and tropical storm conditions are continuing over the

remainder of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.  Tropical storm

conditions are likely beginning in the warning areas in the

Dominican Republic, and hurricane conditions should start in the

hurricane warning area tonight. Tropical storm conditions are

expected to begin in the Turks and Caicos Islands and the

southeastern Bahamas Thursday morning, with hurricane conditions

starting Thursday evening.


Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains

and on high-rise buildings could be much stronger than the near-

surface winds indicated in this advisory.


STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the

tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by

rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water is

expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak

surge occurs at the time of high tide...


Puerto Rico...6 to 9 ft


The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to

the north and east of the landfall location, where the surge will be

accompanied by large and destructive waves.  Surge-related flooding

depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and

can vary greatly over short distances.  For information specific to

your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather

Service forecast office.


A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves

will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide

levels in the hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic, and

1 to 3 ft elsewhere along the northern coasts of the Dominican

Republic and Haiti.


A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves

will raise water levels by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal

tide levels in the hurricane warning area near and to the north of

the center of Maria for both the Southeastern Bahamas and the Turks

and Caicos Islands.


RAINFALL:  Maria is expected to produce the following rainfall

totals through Friday:


Puerto Rico...20 to 25 inches, isolated 35 inches

U.S. and British Virgin Islands...additional 5 to 10 inches,

isolated 15 inches

Northern and eastern Dominican Republic, Turks and Caicos and

southeast Bahamas...8 to 16 inches, isolated 20 inches

Northern Haiti...2 to 4 inches


Rainfall on these islands will cause life-threatening flash floods

and mudslides


TORNADOES:  Several tornadoes are possible over Puerto Rico and the

U.S. Virgin Islands today.


SURF:  Swells generated by Maria are affecting the Leeward Islands,

Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands.  These swells will begin

affecting the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos

Islands, and the Southeastern Bahamas during the next day or two.

These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip

current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather

office.



NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.


$$

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Denis Davis

Denis Davis

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